Predictions for digital publishing in 2024
As we draw to the end of 2023, I thought I’d take a look at the big trends which are likely to roll into 2024 and affect digital publishing.
These are not exhaustive and are primarily through a UK-based lens but hopefully give food for thought before the next 12-months kicks in.
AI
Hard not to start anywhere else, if 2023 has been the year of ‘what ifs’ about AI then the next 12-months will start to really give rise to some of those trends. I think the key elements will be:
Back-office tools. We’ll see more and more editorial workflow tools making use of AI. I was pulling a newsletter together the other day and was asked whether I wanted the whole thing to be pre-built with recommended content based on summaries of the stories I would be including and what readers had already clicked on. The first draft wasn’t great, but it will only improve. Expect more and more editorial workflow tasks to become ‘checking what the machine has pulled together’.
In-depth journalism becomes more in-demand. As ‘utility content’ becomes increasingly provided by prompt-driven machines e.g. there’s a crash here on this motorway and it’s clearing at x time’ the act of journalism – giving context, asking tough questions, interviewing people, becomes the primary skills needed for the 2024 digital journalist.
Content flood risk. The Bournemouth example was a chilling example of how a local publication was quickly spun up with content and authors, all looking like ‘real journalists’ to the unsuspecting eye. Fortunately it was outed very quickly. We’ll see more and more of this, and expect Google and other platforms to take a very dim view and likely make algorithm changes that then impact legitimate publishers in ways they didn’t expect.
Fragmentation of audience platforms
‘Get it on Facebook’ is gone, the platform no longer wants written content. It’s been going that way for a long time now, but 2024 will be the year it goes full throttle if these figures spotted by Dan Slee are anything to go by. The acceleration to Facebook being a place to post and share information, without leaving the platform, is increasing.
Having a distributed content strategy, with content distribution via digital channels at the start of the commissioning process, is going to become even more important. And the overhead to make content work across multiple channels, each demanding their own set of conventions, will be ever-increasing.
This is a very hard challenge for digital publishers, where either Google, or Facebook, or a bit of both has been the only show in town for many years.
And it will cement email newsletters as likely the primary content delivery mechanism for many – as they remain robust against algorithm fluctuations increasingly supported by WhatsApp channels and potentially the return of SMS as a big driver too.
Subscribers to my email newsletter received this first, you can join them via signing up here to TinyLetter
Digital Markets Bill
Against the uncertainty caused by both of the two things above, in the UK at least the regulatory back-drop will be noisy. The Digital Markets Bill debate will intensify, with the BBC’s local expansion another over-arching plotline alongside it too.
The likelihood of Meta coming to the table with any meaningful deal looks remote as it does everything it can to dial down news content on the platform, leaving mainly Google at the table which has a more established relationship with news in the UK through the likes of Google News and Google Showcase.
Set against the increasingly distributed way that audience platforms are needed to connect audiences to digital journalism, it is going to be a minefield to plot a course through the Digital Markets Bill and ensure that publishers receive something fair-share wise for the content creation efforts that go on. And the narrative of why should they get anything may only ramp-up as platforms like TikTok show their creator programmes making £££ for a few, not the many, and increasingly not publishers.
Inflation and government
Trumping all the above, there’s the pure economic situation. Inflation has been easing and becoming less volatile but is still high in the UK in comparison to recent years – putting margins under pressure at every type of publisher in every sector, particularly those with significant legacy print operations where fixed-costs are higher and harder to change up quickly.
Add to this a general election (likely to give a shot in the arm audience wise) and there’s no sign of a stable economic situation being provided for the next 12-18 months at least. This means experimentation is on the one hand crucial to unlock new revenue streams and ways of connecting with audiences, but also risky as it will mean cost with an uncertain return. So expect plenty of pilots and hiring that is more short-term, as people avoid placing big-bets at this stage.
There’s a few good series knocking about on predictions for publishing in 2024 including:
Nieman Lab’s deep-dives and plurality of voices with lots of different takes in their Predictions for Journalism 2024
While Journalism.co.uk spoke to a four different voices for their look at the year ahead.
PressGazette profiled a range of large-scale publishers to start-ups for their look-ahead to 2024 and the pressing issues
Have a fantastic Christmas and all the best for 2024. If there’s anything I can help with, then I’m on ed@almaonline.co.uk